Why there is no public calibration claim.

legacy_fallback_unqualified: The rights-qualified evidence view was empty, so this snapshot renders the legacy realized-outcomes table for transparency only; those rows are not manifest- or review-bound and cannot back a public claim.
source_manifest_unbound: The snapshot is not bound to a reproducible source-manifest version and hash.
insufficient_independent_sources: Fewer than two distinct independence groups are present for the same exact measured quantity.
source_sample_floor_not_met: Fewer than two distinct independence groups measuring the same exact quantity each independently clear the per-group sample floor.
drift_suppressed: The drift monitor detected degradation or false confidence and suppressed publication.
drift_monitor_unavailable: The drift monitor could not produce a live verdict, so publication remains fail-closed.

Public claims suppressed by the drift monitor. Recent realized outcomes show a calibration degradation (drift or false-confidence), so all cohorts are held at “no public claim” until the model re-stabilizes.

source_freshness_drift exceeded threshold (0.3333 > 0.3).
cohort_coverage_drift exceeded threshold (0.6667 > 0.2).
calibration_slope_drift exceeded threshold (0.3250 > 0.1).
Drift monitor unavailable (source_manifest_unavailable); public claims fail closed.

Source manifest not bound. This snapshot is not tied to a recorded source-manifest version/hash, so every public-eligible claim is suppressed until the exact source set can be reproduced and challenged.

Realized outcomes

5000

4543 training-grade

Coverage ratio

91%

training-grade / total

Brier score

0.045

lower is better

Expected calibration error

0.016

lower is better

Publication contract

Evidence qualification vs publishability

Data-gate eligible: none

Publishable after manifest and drift gates: none

Reliability

Observed rate vs predicted risk

Each point is a predicted-risk bin; the dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. Marker size encodes the number of labeled outcomes in the bin. 4543 probability-eligible pairs.

Claim basis

Source-specific calibration

Source	Declared quantity	Pairs	Brier	ECE	Abs leak err	Qualification
onchain_settlement_reconciler	Unclassified realized quantity	2147	0.034	0.014	2.0 bps	Not individually qualified Unknown measured quantity — never counts toward the public gate
onchain_quote_dispersion_reconciler	Unclassified realized quantity	1714	0.068	0.032	101.7 bps	Not individually qualified Unknown measured quantity — never counts toward the public gate
dex_quote_diff_reconciler	Unclassified realized quantity	682	0.019	0.055	2.5 bps	Not individually qualified Unknown measured quantity — never counts toward the public gate

A public claim for a measurement quantity requires at least two distinct independence groups to independently clear the sample floor and Brier/ECE quality ceiling for that same exact quantity. Different measurement quantities never corroborate one another. The overall Brier/ECE above is a blended transparency summary, not the claim basis.

Cohorts

Breakdown

Cohort	n	Train	Coverage	Brier	ECE	Abs leak err	Same-measurement src pass	Claim
ethereum	2425	2398	99%	0.031	0.021	23.7 bps	0/2 required	No public claim
base	1321	1161	88%	0.095	0.047	28.6 bps	0/2 required	No public claim
arbitrum	1254	984	78%	0.018	0.022	91.7 bps	0/2 required	No public claim

Excluded coverage

Labels not used for metrics

457 realized outcomes were excluded from the metrics above. They are counted here, not silently dropped — unsupported chains/venues, partial labels, stale-source labels, and ambiguous evidence never enter the published numbers.

partial: 448stale: 9

Trust

Methodology & limitations

Methodology version

calibration_snapshot.v2

Artifact hash

fnv1a:83211017

Schema

routescore.calibration.public_snapshot.v2

Public claim state

no_public_claim

Realized-outcome labels are sparse during launch; most cohorts read "no public claim" until they pass the per-cohort sample floor.
Modeled route leak/risk is calibration evidence, not a guarantee of future execution quality.
Unsupported chains/venues, partial labels, stale-source labels, and ambiguous labels are excluded from metrics and reported as excluded coverage, not silently dropped.
Public eligibility requires at least two DISTINCT independence groups measuring the same exact known quantity to each independently clear the sample floor and Brier/ECE ceiling on their own outcomes. Groups measuring different quantities never corroborate one another. The overall Brier/ECE shown is a blended transparency summary, not the claim basis.
Public claims require a bound source manifest version/hash so the exact source set can be reproduced and challenged; an unbound snapshot is always "no public claim".
Customer-derived observations enter calibration only under an executed bounded aggregation grant. The calibration feed contains no customer, wallet, execution-record, reviewer, rights, or administrative identifiers.